Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”