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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.